The more effective NATO support to the insurgency is, the more the Kremlin would likely be willing to risk attacks on safe havens in NATO territory-most likely employing irregular forces or even the infamous Wagner Group, a private organization that operates globally as a quasi-special force of the Kremlin. This would roughly mirror the strategy that the United States used to assist French resistance against Nazi Germany in World War II. Disgust with Putin’s war has greatly increased the chances that Washington and some of its allies would seek to fight on, for instance by supporting a Ukrainian insurgency.
The terms will almost certainly include a pledge of Ukrainian neutrality, and might go further by committing Ukraine formally to Russia’s sphere of influence with a membership in Russia’s Collective Security Treaty Organization or its Eurasian Economic Union.Īt this juncture, the United States and its allies would face an extraordinarily difficult policy choice.
#World in conflict game insurgents install
In this case, Russia will install a puppet government in Kyiv, which will sign terms of surrender highly favorable to Russia. Ultimately, he needs at least to force the ouster of President Volodymyr Zelensky and his government.
He can accompany this with special forces attacks in the capital to disrupt the civilian population and sow further confusion and discontent. If the current uneven pace of Russian military progress doesn’t accomplish the job, the most likely strategy for doing this is to make an example of a city like Kharkiv, leveling it as if it were Grozny or Aleppo, both cities that Russia has brutally destroyed in the recent past, and then threatening to burn Kyiv to the ground. Judging from how things stand now, Putin, having invested so much in this war already, seems unlikely to settle for anything less than the complete subjugation of the Ukrainian government. These are transparent fig leaves for what is nothing more than a war of brute imperialism. For good measure, Putin throws in the ludicrous assertion that Ukraine is fascist. Putin deliberately frames his operation in Ukraine in the same way that the United States has framed its own regime-change operations in Kosovo, Iraq, and Libya, charging that Ukraine has committed human rights violations and is a terrorist state. national intelligence officer for Europe suggest that if we boil it down, there are really only two paths toward ending the war: one, continued escalation, potentially across the nuclear threshold the other, a bitter peace imposed on a defeated Ukraine that will be extremely hard for the United States and many European allies to swallow. and allied governments and my own experience as the U.S. But scores of war games conducted for the U.S. More >Īmid this escalation, experts can spin out an infinite number of branching scenarios on how this might end. Chivvis is the director of the American Statecraft Program at the Carnegie Endowment. A growing number of voices in Washington are clamoring for a more aggressive approach from the United States and NATO, pressuring the White House to support a Ukrainian insurgency with a broad menu of weaponry or even calling for NATO to impose a no-fly zone over Ukraine.Ĭhristopher S. Several European nations that had previously hesitated to involve themselves militarily in the conflict have now done so, sending weapons and financing Ukraine’s resistance. Meanwhile, NATO, the G7, and a host of other countries have turned the dial of economic punishment up to unprecedented levels. Most frighteningly, he has raised the alert level of Russian nuclear forces and may be considering introducing martial law. He may turn the lights off in a major U.S. He could escalate the conflict to another region, such as the Balkans, where long-standing conflicts fester and Russia has an extensive network of intelligence and security services. This will terrorize the civilian population and could demoralize the budding Ukrainian resistance. He has now encircled major Ukrainian cities with his army and threatens to flatten them with thermobaric weapons, cluster munitions, and guided missiles. Putin’s war of choice in Ukraine is already escalating faster than most experts would have imagined just a week ago. Wars sometimes start easily, but it is a tenet of strategy that they are always unpredictable and extremely hard to end.
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